According to the international Renewable Energy Agency IRENA forecast, from 2025, China will start to produce a large number of retired photovoltaic modules, discarded photovoltaic modules in 2030 will reach about 1.5 million tons, in 2050 will reach 20 million tons.

China's photovoltaic installed capacity reached GW level for the first time in 2011. Based on the module life of 20 years, a large number of discarded modules will be generated in 2031, but the large-scale 'retirement' period of modules may be significantly advanced." China pv industry association assistant secretary-general, sadie think-tank institute of integrated circuit on the new energy industry research director said, because our country building photovoltaic power station early product quality is uneven, probably won't be retired period will be eliminated in advance, and early subsidised power station because of the high return on investment, may also replace the high power components and eliminate components in advance.

据国际可再生能源机构 IRENA预测，从2025年起，我国将开始产生大批量的退役光伏组件，2030年废弃光伏组件将达到150万吨左右，2050年将达到2000万吨。

我国光伏发电装机2011年第一次达到GW级规模、以组件寿命20年计算，将在2031年产生大量报废组件，但组件大规模‘退役期’可能大幅提前。”中国光伏行业协会助理秘书长、赛迪智库集成电路研究所新能源产业研究室主任江华表示，由于我国早期建设的光伏电站产品质量参差不齐，很可能达不到退役期就会提前被淘汰，而早期有补贴的电站因为投资收益率高，也可能提前更换高功率组件而产生淘汰组件。