The report states that there is an 80% probability of an El Niño event - the warm phase of the natural Pacific climate cycle - occurring between June and August 2026, while the probability rises to 90% by November.
报告称，在2026年6月至8月期间，厄尔尼诺现象——即太平洋自然气候周期的暖相阶段发生的几率高达80%；而到11月，该现象发生的几率则高达90%。

The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a new report on June 2, stating that as a potentially extraordinary El Niño phenomenon has begun to emerge, the world must prepare for a surge in extreme weather events and heatwaves.
联合国世界气象组织（WMO）6月2日发表最新报告称，随着一场可能非同寻常的厄尔尼诺现象已初现端倪，全球必须为极端天气和热浪的激增做好准备。

The report stated that the probability of the occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon, which is the warm phase of the natural climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean, was as high as 80% during the period from June to August 2026; and by November, the probability of its occurrence had risen to 90%.
报告称，在2026年6月至8月期间，厄尔尼诺现象——即太平洋自然气候周期的暖相阶段发生的概率高达80%；而到11月，该现象发生的概率则高达90%。

Global early warning
全球范围预警

"The El Niño phenomenon will add fuel to the already warming world," UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated in a declaration on the 2nd. The world "must regard it as an urgent climate warning.".
“厄尔尼诺现象将给已经日益变暖的世界火上浇油。”联合国秘书长古特雷斯（António Guterres）在2日的一份声明中表示，世界“必须将其视为一个紧迫的气候预警”。

Forecasts from multiple meteorological agencies indicate that this El Niño phenomenon may ultimately evolve into a so-called "super" El Niño.
多家气象机构的预测显示，此次厄尔尼诺现象最终可能演变为所谓的“超级”厄尔尼诺。


（来源：百度百科）

"Extreme heat alone is already one of the deadliest climate disasters we face. The El Niño phenomenon may exacerbate this threat," Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, said at a press conference on the 2nd. "We will face more heat-related diseases, and the pressure on food and water resource systems will also increase, pushing already struggling communities to the limits of their endurance," she said.
“仅极端高温一项，就已是我们面临的最致命的气候灾害之一。厄尔尼诺现象可能会加剧这一威胁。”世界气象组织秘书长绍洛（Celeste Saulo）在2日的新闻发布会上表示，“我们将面临更多与高温相关的疾病，粮食和水资源系统承受的压力也将增大，而那些本已处境艰难的社区将被进一步推向承受的极限。”她说。

Climate scientists say the reason for the “forecast” of a strong El Nino is partly hidden beneath the surface. According to current data from satellites, buoys and ocean floats, a huge plume of unusually warm water is slowly moving eastwards across the Pacific, hundreds of metres deep; in some areas, the water is more than 6C above average.
气候科学家们称，之所以能“预告”出现强烈的厄尔尼诺现象，部分原因深藏于海面之下。根据目前来自卫星、浮标和海洋浮球的数据，一股巨大的异常暖水流正向东横跨太平洋缓慢推进，其深度达数百米；在某些区域，水温甚至比平均水平高出6摄氏度以上。

Michelle L'Heureux, a physical scientist at the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), stated that the temperature of these seawaters is "comparable to some of the strongest observed El Niño events.".
美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）气候预测中心的物理科学家勒赫勒（Michelle L’Heureux）表示，这些海水的温度“足以媲美观测到的某些最强烈的厄尔尼诺事件”。

This deep-sea thermal energy often indicates that the sea surface temperature is about to rise, and the subsequent warming of the sea surface will heat the air above, leading to global climate change and disruption.
这种深海热能往往预示着海面水温即将升高，随之而来的海面升温会加热上方的空气，从而带来全球气候变化的紊乱。

The intensity of the global El Niño phenomenon in 2023 ranked among the top five on record, making 2024 the warmest year in global history. Experts from the World Meteorological Organization issued a warning last week that the emergence of the next such phenomenon could lead to a new global temperature record in 2027.
2023年发生的全球厄尔尼诺现象强度位列有记录以来的前五名，并让2024年成为全球有史以来最炎热的一年。世界气象组织的专家上周发出预警称，下一轮此类现象的出现，可能会导致2027年的全球气温再次刷新纪录。

However, the World Meteorological Organization also emphasized on the 2nd that the specific intensity and peak of this round of El Niño phenomenon are still uncertain.
不过，世界气象组织2日也强调，本轮厄尔尼诺现象的具体强度及其峰值目前尚存变数。

"Only when we have a precise grasp of this will we classify it as 'moderate' or 'strong'. Currently, some climate models do not indicate that the El Niño phenomenon will reach the 'strong' level, while others give such predictions," said Shao Luo.
“只有当我们对此有了确切把握时，才会将其定性为‘中等’或‘强’级别。目前，有些气候模型并未显示厄尔尼诺现象将达到‘强’级别的迹象，而另一些模型则给出了此类预示。”绍洛表示。

Extreme weather has hit the United States
极端天气已经袭美

Before the arrival of El Niño, many parts of the United States were being hit by extreme weather: a series of extreme weather events, including wildfires in California, thunderstorms and flash floods in the Midwest, and extreme heat in the Northeast, had already left millions of Americans under various weather warnings.
在厄尔尼诺还未到来前，美国多地正在受到极端天气的袭击：加利福尼亚州的野火、中西部的雷暴和山洪暴发，以及东北部的极端高温等一系列极端恶劣天气已经致使数百万美国民众处于各类天气预警之下。

In the vicinity of Southern California, as wildfires raged near Burro Peak and throughout the Simi Valley area, the evacuation order and related warnings issued on the 2nd day remain in effect.
在南加州附近地区，随着野火在布罗峰（Burro Peak）附近及整个西米谷（Simi Valley）地区肆虐，2日疏散令及相关预警依然生效。

According to local media reports, the "Sandy Fire" located approximately 30 kilometers northwest of Los Angeles has not been extinguished since it emerged on the morning of the 1st. As of the morning of the 2nd, only 5% of the fire had been contained, according to data from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
根据当地媒体的报道，位于洛杉矶西北约30公里处的西米谷“桑迪大火”（Sandy Fire）自1日上午出现以来仍未被扑灭。据加州林业与消防局（California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection）的数据，截至2日上午，火势仅有5%得到控制。


（来源：百度百科）

In the Midwest region of the United States, parts of Missouri and Illinois experienced widespread showers and thunderstorms on the morning of the 2nd, with some rainfall even triggering flash floods in localized areas.
在美国的中西部地区，密苏里州和伊利诺伊州的部分地区2日上午遭遇了大范围的阵雨和雷暴天气，部分降雨甚至在局部地区引发了山洪暴发。

On the 2nd, flood monitoring and warning systems for approximately 7 million people, including residents of Kansas City and St. Louis, remained in effect. According to the National Weather Service, these areas are expected to face severe thunderstorms, damaging gusts, and even hail for several days.
2日，针对约700万人口（其中包括堪萨斯城和圣路易斯的居民）的洪水监测预警依然生效。据美国国家气象局（National Weather Service）预测，这些地区将在多日内面临强雷暴、破坏性阵风，甚至冰雹的袭击。

(Using AI translation)
（使用AI翻译）